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<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT color=#0000ff size=2 face=Arial><SPAN
class=578334207-20042013>From River Runners for Wilderness</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT color=#0000ff size=2 face=Arial><SPAN
class=578334207-20042013>see below for links to their page and wiki link lists
as discussed in awc meeting.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT color=#0000ff size=2 face=Arial><SPAN
class=578334207-20042013></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT color=#0000ff size=2 face=Arial><SPAN
class=578334207-20042013>Under Current Operations: the Grand Canyon river
flows for April, May, May 25 steady flow for 1 week, and June are listed
</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT color=#0000ff size=2 face=Arial><SPAN
class=578334207-20042013>Thought you might be interested in knowing how much
variation in the flows there are.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT color=#0000ff size=2 face=Arial><SPAN
class=578334207-20042013></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT color=#0000ff size=2 face=Arial><SPAN
class=578334207-20042013>From Celia Southwick</SPAN></FONT></DIV><BR>
<DIV dir=ltr lang=en-us class=OutlookMessageHeader align=left>
<HR tabIndex=-1>
<FONT size=2 face=Tahoma><B>From:</B> RRFW Riverwire [mailto:jo@rrfw.ccsend.com]
<B>On Behalf Of </B>RRFW Riverwire<BR><B>Sent:</B> Friday, April 19, 2013 2:25
PM<BR><B>To:</B> rsouthwick@shamanproducts.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Glen Canyon
Dam Update April 2013<BR></FONT><BR></DIV>
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align=left><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: georgia, times new roman, times, serif; COLOR: rgb(102,0,51); FONT-SIZE: 18pt"><STRONG>RRFW
Riverwire </STRONG><STRONG> </STRONG></SPAN></P>
<P
style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"
align=left><STRONG>Glen Canyon Dam Update April
2013</STRONG></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 6px" id=content_LETTER.BLOCK4
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<P style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><STRONG>April
19, 2013</STRONG></P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><STRONG>Current
Status</STRONG></P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN>The
unregulated inflow volu<SPAN>m</SPAN>e to Lake Powell in March
was 362 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (54% of average). The release
vo<SPAN>l</SPAN>u<SPAN>m</SPAN>e from Glen Canyon
D<SPAN>a</SPAN>m in March was 601 kaf. The end of March
elevation and stora<SPAN>g</SPAN>e of Lake Powell were 3599.0
feet (101 feet from full pool) and 11.<SPAN>6</SPAN>5
<SPAN>m</SPAN>illion acre-feet (<SPAN>m</SPAN>a<SPAN>f</SPAN>)
(48% of full capacity). The reservoir elevation will
co<SPAN>n</SPAN>tinue to decli<SPAN>n</SPAN>e
u<SPAN>n</SPAN>til <SPAN>s</SPAN>now<SPAN>m</SPAN>elt and
spring runoff begin to fill the reservoir in late
spring.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><STRONG>Current
Operations</STRONG></P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN>The
operating tier for 2013 is the Upper Elevati<SPAN>o</SPAN>n
Balancing Tier, as establish in August 2012 and pursuant to
the Interim Gu<SPAN>i</SPAN>delines. The April 24-Month Study
projects the end of water year elevation at Lake Powell to be
3,584.13 feet and Lake Mead to be 1,104.18 feet. Since the
projected end of water year elevation at Lake Powell is below
the 2013 Equalization Elevation of 3,646.0 fe<SPAN>e</SPAN>t
and the p<SPAN>r</SPAN>ojected end of water year elevation at
Lake Mead is above elevation 1,075.0 feet, Section 6.B.1 of
<SPAN>t</SPAN>he Interim Guidelines provide for an annual
relea<SPAN>s</SPAN>e volume of 8.23
<SPAN>m</SPAN><SPAN>a</SPAN>f from L<SPAN>a</SPAN>ke Powell
during water year 2013. Recla<SPAN>m</SPAN>ation will schedule
o<SPAN>p</SPAN>erations at Glen Canyon D<SPAN>a</SPAN>m to
achieve as practicably as possible an 8.23 <SPAN>m</SPAN>af
<SPAN>a</SPAN>nnual release volu<SPAN>m</SPAN>e by
Septe<SPAN>m</SPAN>ber 30, 2013.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN>Releases
from Glen Canyon D<SPAN>a</SPAN>m in April are currently
averaging approxi<SPAN>m</SPAN>ately 9,600 cubic feet per
second (cfs) with daily fluctuations between
approxi<SPAN>m</SPAN>ately 6,500 cfs at nightti<SPAN>m</SPAN>e
and approxi<SPAN>m</SPAN>ately 11,500 cfs during the
dayti<SPAN>m</SPAN>e and consistent with the Glen Canyon
Operating <SPAN>C</SPAN>riteria (Federal Register,
V<SPAN>o</SPAN>lu<SPAN>m</SPAN>e 62, No. 41, March 3, 1997).
The scheduled release volu<SPAN>m</SPAN>e for April 2013 is
550 kaf.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN>In May,
the release vol<SPAN>u</SPAN><SPAN>m</SPAN>e will
li<SPAN>k</SPAN>ely be about <SPAN>6</SPAN>00 kaf, with
fluctuations for hydropower between approxi<SPAN>m</SPAN>ately
7,000 cfs at nightti<SPAN>m</SPAN>e and
approxi<SPAN>m</SPAN>ately 13,000 cfs in the
dayti<SPAN>m</SPAN>e. In addition, to
accom<SPAN>m</SPAN>oda<SPAN>t</SPAN>e airb<SPAN>o</SPAN>rne
<SPAN>d</SPAN>ata c<SPAN>o</SPAN>llecti<SPAN>o</SPAN>n, steady
releases of approxi<SPAN>m</SPAN>ately 8,000 cfs are
tentatively pl<SPAN>a</SPAN>nned near the end of May,
beginning on or about Saturday May 25 and la<SPAN>s</SPAN>ting
for about one week. In J<SPAN>u</SPAN>ne, the release
volu<SPAN>m</SPAN>e will likely be about 800 kaf with
fluctuations between approxi<SPAN>m</SPAN>ately 9,000
c<SPAN>f</SPAN>s and 17,000 cfs.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN>In
addition to daily scheduled fluctuat<SPAN>i</SPAN>ons for
power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon
D<SPAN>a</SPAN>m may also fluctuate to provide 40 MW of system
regulation. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize
the electrical generation and trans<SPAN>m</SPAN>ission system
and translate to a range of about 1,100 cfs above or below the
hourly scheduled release rate. Typically, fluctuations for
system regulation are very short lived and balance out over
the hour and do not have noti<SPAN>c</SPAN>eable
i<SPAN>m</SPAN>pacts on downstream river flow
conditions.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN>Releases
from Glen Canyon D<SPAN>a</SPAN>m can also
f<SPAN>l</SPAN>uctuate beyond scheduled fluctuations for power
generation when called upon as a partner that shares reserve
require<SPAN>m</SPAN>ents within the electrical generator
com<SPAN>m</SPAN>unity (i.e. bal<SPAN>a</SPAN>ncing area).
Reserves provide system reliability in the eve<SPAN>n</SPAN>t
of an unsche<SPAN>d</SPAN>uled outa<SPAN>g</SPAN>e. Glen
Canyon D<SPAN>a</SPAN>m typically <SPAN>m</SPAN>aintains 43
<SPAN>megawatts (M</SPAN>W) of <SPAN>r</SPAN>eserves
(approxi<SPAN>m</SPAN><SPAN>a</SPAN>tely 1,100 cfs). Reserve
calls can be <SPAN>m</SPAN>aintained for a
<SPAN>m</SPAN>ax<SPAN>i</SPAN><SPAN>m</SPAN><SPAN>u</SPAN>m of
two hours after which ti<SPAN>m</SPAN>e the generation rate
should be returned to the original schedule. If reserves from
Glen Canyon D<SPAN>a</SPAN>m are called upon, releases from
the dam can exceed sched<SPAN>u</SPAN>led levels
a<SPAN>n</SPAN>d can have a noticeable impact on
t<SPAN>h</SPAN>e river downstream from Glen Canyon Dam. Calls
f<SPAN>o</SPAN>r reserves are fairly infrequent and typically
are for less than 43 <SPAN>M</SPAN>W and typically less than
two hours.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><STRONG>Inflow
Forecasts and Model Projections</STRONG></P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN>The
hydrol<SPAN>o</SPAN>gic forecast for Lake Powell
f<SPAN>o</SPAN>r the April to J<SPAN>u</SPAN>ly water supply
season projects t<SPAN>h</SPAN>at the <SPAN>m</SPAN>ost
probable (<SPAN>m</SPAN>edian) un<SPAN>r</SPAN>egulated inflow
volu<SPAN>m</SPAN>e will be 2.7 <SPAN>m</SPAN><SPAN>a</SPAN>f
(38% of average <SPAN>b</SPAN>ased on the period
198<SPAN>1</SPAN>-2010). The forecast has continued to
decrease throughout the winter a<SPAN>n</SPAN>d spring season.
Based on the current forecast, the April 24- Month study
projects the end of water year
res<SPAN>e</SPAN>r<SPAN>v</SPAN>oir
<SPAN>e</SPAN><SPAN>l</SPAN>evation and storage for Lake
Powell will be 3584.1 and 10.30 <SPAN>m</SPAN>af (42%
capacit<SPAN>y</SPAN>), res<SPAN>p</SPAN>ectively, which is
below the 2013 Equalization
<SPAN>E</SPAN><SPAN>l</SPAN>evation of 3,646feet. Therefore,
consistent with the Interim Guidelines, the annual release
volume from Lake Powell during water year 2013 is scheduled to
be 8.23 <SPAN>m</SPAN><SPAN>a</SPAN>f.
Recla<SPAN>m</SPAN>ation will sc<SPAN>he</SPAN>dule operations
at Glen Canyon Dam to achieve as practicably as possible an
8.23 <SPAN>m</SPAN>af annual release volu<SPAN>m</SPAN>e by
Septe<SPAN>m</SPAN>ber 30, 2013.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN>Consistent
with the Interim Guidelines, if the August 24-Month study
projects the January 1, 2014, Lake Powell elevation to be less
than 3,575.0 feet and at or above 3,525.0 feet and the Lake
Mead elevation to be at or above 1,025.0 feet, the operational
ti<SPAN>e</SPAN>r <SPAN>f</SPAN>or Lake Powell in water
<SPAN>y</SPAN>ear 2<SPAN>0</SPAN>14 will be t<SPAN>h</SPAN>e
Mid-<SPAN>E</SPAN><SPAN>l</SPAN>ev<SPAN>a</SPAN>tion
Rel<SPAN>e</SPAN>ase Tier and the water year
relea<SPAN>s</SPAN>e vol<SPAN>u</SPAN><SPAN>m</SPAN>e from
L<SPAN>a</SPAN>ke Powell will <SPAN>b</SPAN>e 7.48 maf. This
April 2013 24- Month study projects that, with an 8.23
<SPAN>m</SPAN>af annual release pattern in water year 2014,
the January 1, 2014, Lake Powell elevation <SPAN>w</SPAN>ould
be 3,573.66 feet and the Lake Mead elevation
<SPAN>w</SPAN>ould be 1,107.60 feet. Therefore, the 2014 Lake
Powell operational tier is currently projected to be the
Mid-Elevation Release Tier with an annual release volume of
7.48 <SPAN>m</SPAN><SPAN>a</SPAN>f. Based on
analysis of a range of inflow scenarios, the current
probability of realizing an inflow volu<SPAN>m</SPAN>e that
would result in the
Mid-<SPAN>E</SPAN><SPAN>l</SPAN>e<SPAN>v</SPAN>ation
Relea<SPAN>s</SPAN>e Tier and a 7.48 <SPAN>m</SPAN>af annual
release from Lake Powell in 2014 is approxi<SPAN>m</SPAN>ately
65 percent.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><STRONG>Upper
Colorado River Basin Hydrology</STRONG></P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN>Since
2005, the Upper Colorado River Basin h<SPAN>a</SPAN>s
experienced signif<SPAN>i</SPAN>cant year to year hydrologic
variability. <SPAN>T</SPAN>he unregulated inflow to Lake
Powell, which is a good <SPAN>m</SPAN>easure of hydrologic
conditions in the Colorado River <SPAN>B</SPAN>asin, has
averaged a water year volume of 10.22
<SPAN>m</SPAN><SPAN>a</SPAN>f (94% of average (period
1981<SPAN>-</SPAN>2010)) during the period from 2005 through
2012. The hydrologic variability during this period has been
from a low water year unregulated inflow volu<SPAN>m</SPAN>e
of4.91 <SPAN>m</SPAN><SPAN>a</SPAN>f (45% of average) in water
year 2012 to a high water year unregulated inflow
volu<SPAN>m</SPAN>e of15.97 <SPAN>m</SPAN><SPAN>a</SPAN>f
(147% of average) in water year 2011. Based on observed
inflows and curre<SPAN>n</SPAN>t forecasts, water year 2013
<SPAN>u</SPAN>nregulated inflow is expected to be4.53
<SPAN>m</SPAN>af (42% of average), which would be the second
below- average <SPAN>y</SPAN>ear in a row.</SPAN></P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN>At the
beginning of water year 2013, overall reservoir storage in the
Colorado River Basin had increased by
approxi<SPAN>m</SPAN>ately 4 <SPAN>m</SPAN>af compared with
water year 2005, which was an
i<SPAN>m</SPAN>prove<SPAN>m</SPAN>ent over the
persiste<SPAN>n</SPAN>t drought co<SPAN>n</SPAN>ditions of
2<SPAN>0</SPAN>00 through <SPAN>2</SPAN>004. Total reservoir
storage in the Colorado River Basin had increased from 29.8
<SPAN>m</SPAN><SPAN>a</SPAN>f (50% of capacity) at the
beginning of 2005 to 33.9 <SPAN>m</SPAN>af (57 % of capacity)
at the beginning of 2013. However, during this period, total
Colorado Basin storage experienced year to year increases and
decreases in response to wet <SPAN>a</SPAN>nd dry hydrology.
In addition, conditions in 2013 have been drier
t<SPAN>h</SPAN>an average a<SPAN>n</SPAN>d given observed
inflows and current forecasts, t<SPAN>h</SPAN>e projected end
of water year 2013 total reser<SPAN>v</SPAN>oir storage is
approxi<SPAN>m</SPAN>ately 29.1 <SPAN>m</SPAN>af (49% of
capacity).</SPAN></P>
<P
style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px"><SPAN>This
update courtesy of Katrina Grantz, Bureau of
Reclamation</SPAN></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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