From: Jones, Kerry - FS, NM <Kerry.Jones@usda.gov>
Sent: Tuesday, February 21, 2023 12:07 PM
Subject: 2/21 Weather Trends Update + Dangerously High Winds (and Snow) for Wednesday
Importance: High
Good afternoon, everyone—
Unfortunately, the forecast for dangerously high winds is not getting any less extreme for tomorrow (Wednesday). NWS issues high wind warnings when sustained winds are > 40mph or gusts reach 58mph (50 knots) or stronger. Add snow and blowing snow in the high country and we’re well within life-threatening blizzard conditions. Not to mention impacts from blowing dust for the RGV.
Virtually every county in the state is expected to experience high wind conditions tomorrow, which is rare for late February. The image below from this morning’s NWS Blend of Models suggests areas over/immediately east of the Sangre de Cristos, Sandia/Manzanos down to the Sacramento Mountains could experience gusts in the 80-90+ mph range! Mountain ranges over central and south-central NM will likely to see the brunt and longest duration of potentially damaging winds. These high winds will be associated with a powerful cold front that will sweep the region from mid/late morning into early afternoon Wednesday.
In addition to extreme winds, high confidence we will continue to add to our mountain snowpack during the next 24-36 hours. Snow accumulation levels for northern NM near/above 8,500 feet this afternoon into the evening gradually lower tonight but then abruptly fall behind the front mid/late morning Wednesday. Light accumulations expected for locales like Taos (1-3”) and Santa Fe (dusting to 1 or 2”). High elevations of the Gila and Lincoln should narrowly edge out northern NM this go round.
The attached slides are for the next seven days to supplement SWCC and NWS outlooks/forecasts. This link to forecast weather is direct from NWS and is useful for keeping up to date on the latest forecast at a specific location.
Stay safe tomorrow!
Kerry
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