[LWVNM Action] Ranked choice voting in Georgia's November 2020 election RE: Convention item
Jeanne Logsdon
jlogsdon at unm.edu
Sun Apr 11 13:35:45 MDT 2021
George and All –
Here are the percentages of the votes cast in the November 3, 2020 Georgia Senate election:
David Perdue (Republican incumbent) 49.73%
Jon Ossoff (Democratic candidate) 47.95%
Shane Hazel (Libertarian candidate) 2.32%
One has to make certain assumptions about how an election would have turned out under different circumstances. If ranked-choice voting had been in place for this election, we need to analyze how the Hazel supporters would have ranked Perdue and Ossoff as their second choice. I believe that a very high percentage of them would have ranked Perdue as their second choice because the Libertarian philosophy (esp. smaller government) is closer to Republican than Democratic values. Therefore, Perdue would have easily won.
The November 3 Georgia “special election” to fill Isakson’s Senate seat for 2 years is more complicated because there were over 20 candidates on the ballot. Party primaries were not held to coalesce party support around leading candidates. The initial results were as follows:
Raphael Warnock (Democratic candidate) 32.90%
Kelly Loeffler (Rep. appointed incumbent) 25.91%
Doug Collins (Republican candidate) 19.95%
Deborah Jackson (Democratic candidate) 6.68%
6 Democratic candidates with < 3% each 8.89%
4 Republican candidates with < 2% each 3.51%
1 Libertarian .72%
1 Green .31%
4 Independents 1.21%
Predicting the second, third, fourth, etc. choices of the losing candidates is speculative at best. But to simplify, one might assume that the Collins and other Republican supporters would be more likely to select Loeffler as better reflecting their values than Warnock. Similarly, the Jackson and other Democratic supporters would be more likely to prefer Warnock over Loeffler. If so, then the results would have been very close:
Loeffler 49.37%
Warnock 48.47%
If the Libertarian voters go with Loeffler and the Green voters go with Warnock, then Loeffler wins. If we relax thie assumption, then the mixed bag of Independents might have decided the race. But, thankfully, this is all speculation because indeed there was a run-off in January 2021.
I have strong misgivings about ranked-choice voting. The results are not going to be the same as from a run-off election, at least some of the time. It will cost more to conduct a run-off election, but I have more confidence that the results accurately reflect the will of the voters.
Please let me know of any errors in my calculations. Also I welcome other opinions and perspectives.
Jeanne
PS: All candidate and election data found on Google.
From: George Richmond <geomrich1 at comcast.net>
Sent: Friday, April 9, 2021 1:48 PM
To: action at mailman.swcp.com
Cc: Jeanne Logsdon <jlogsdon at unm.edu>
Subject: Re: [LWVNM Action] Convention item
[EXTERNAL]
I must have missed that election in Georgia. Can you ask Jeanne to share more details about how RCV in Georgia would have resulted in a different result.
George Richmond
On 4/9/2021 10:32 AM, Karen Douglas via Action wrote:
LWVNM - Jeanne Logsdon pointed to Rank Choice Voting during the March 2021 CNM Board meeting and indicated that the Georgia Senate race outcome would have been different if Rank Choice Voting was implemented. Although this saves resources, perhaps a more careful review should be considered.
On Fri, Apr 9, 2021 at 7:33 AM Barbara Calef via Action <action at mailman.swcp.com<mailto:action at mailman.swcp.com>> wrote:
I am pasting the relevant portion of the minutes from our March board meeting. I am glad that Meredith brought this up because I was wondering what happened to the meeting Karen W. told us about. I was hoping it would be open to all League members, but have not seen it mentioned since March 6.
Barbara
PROPOSED CONCURRENCE WITH LWVVT POSITION ON RANKED-CHOICE VOTING
Delegates to the 2019 LWVNM Convention were asked to adopt the board-recommended statement in the Election Procedures position which read, "Ranked-choice voting [RCV] in all elections" to replace the wording, "Amending the State Constitution to allow run-off elections in the case of non-partisan elections." The delegates rejected this proposal because of a lack of understanding on the issue and the concerns about whether RCV had been successfully implemented in other jurisdictions. The Santa Fe League has asked that the RCV statement be reconsidered at the 2021 Convention. Chris moved that LWVNM adopt the RCV statement in place of the current run-off statement and to include it as a recommended item at the convention in April. Meredith seconded this motion. Chris noted that Common Cause will provide educational materials to League members and that organization has offered to meet with the individual Leagues about the issue.
Akkana instead suggested using language such as, "an alternative voting system like ranked choice voting" because there are multiple alternative voting systems. Barbara offered Akkana's proposed language as a friendly amendment, which Chris accepted. Dick is concerned about this language change because it suggests we approve every alternative way of voting. Eileen was concerned about amending language from a concurrence with another League and Kathy was concerned that adopting a position from another League does not allow buy-in from the membership until after the fact. Based on these concerns, Chris withdrew her motion.
On Fri, Apr 9, 2021 at 8:37 AM Meredith Machen via Action <action at mailman.swcp.com<mailto:action at mailman.swcp.com>> wrote:
My apologies. In my broken arm and shoulder pain haze, I did not read it carefully. I was remembering the Board discussion on RCV and was thinking it was included in the position revision. Thanks for correcting the record, Chris.
Meredith Machen ,
mermachen at cybermesa.com<mailto:mermachen at cybermesa.com>
505 577 6337
On Apr 9, 2021, at 10:09 AM, Chris Furlanetto <crfrwf at yahoo.com<mailto:crfrwf at yahoo.com>> wrote:
Meredith,
I need to correct your message below.
The Program agenda for the LWVNM Convention does not include any Election Procedures position changes regarding ranked choice voting (RCV) or any other methods of counting votes.
There is an Election Procedures item on the Convention agenda. This concerns the addition of two Board-approved sub-bullets related to primary election eligibility/party affiliation.
Please refer to the Spring La Palabra for a description of all the Program items to be voted on. All are recommended by the LWVNM Board.
The question of amending the NM Election Procedures position to endorse RCV or to make any other changes to our position about how votes are counted is not on the agenda for Convention as either a recommended or non-recommended item for a vote. Stating that the the state Board approved and supports such an update to our Election Procedures position is incorrect.
Let me know of any questions of course. I'll be happy to provide additional information.
Chris
On Thursday, April 8, 2021, 01:41:52 PM MDT, Meredith Machen via Action <action at mailman.swcp.com<mailto:action at mailman.swcp.com>> wrote:
For background on why the state board approved and supports updating our Election Procedures position as presented in the Spring La Palabra Program Report, see below. Plurality voting is a democratic system that requires a majority in order to win while “winner takes all” fails to do that. Thanks for studying the issue. Santa Fe and Las Cruces joined many enlightened governments by instituting ranked choice voting. The Maine uses it for all elections even primaries. Lots of Leagues have done extensive studies and have lobbied for voters to support the change.
Meredith Machen
mermachen at cybermesa.com<mailto:mermachen at cybermesa.com>
505 577 6337
Begin forwarded message:
From: Paula Lee <paula.lee at comcast.net<mailto:paula.lee at comcast.net>>
Date: April 8, 2021 at 11:27:34 AM EDT
To: Kayla Vix <KVix at lwv.org<mailto:KVix at lwv.org>>
Cc: LWV New York - Dare Thompson <darethompson at gmail.com<mailto:darethompson at gmail.com>>, LWV Colorado - ED Beth Hendrix <bhendrix at lwvcolorado.org<mailto:bhendrix at lwvcolorado.org>>, Carol Moon Goldberg <cmoongoldberg at lwvc.org<mailto:cmoongoldberg at lwvc.org>>, League of Women Voters State Presidents <lwv-state-presidents at googlegroups.com<mailto:lwv-state-presidents at googlegroups.com>>
Subject: Re: Mt Holyoke professor Douglas J Amy
Professor Douglas Amy’s book “Behind the Ballot Box: A Citizens Guide to Election Systems had a great list of criteria
California Local Leagues used to evaluate different electoral systems in California’s state study of election systems.
I am not familiar with ALL his work but Professor Amy has been writing about the problems with U.S. plurality elections for many years.
As an alternative to plurality winner take all elections, he argues for proportional representation.
After 20 years of LWV state and local electoral reform studies, our LWVUS Voter Representation and Election Systems
position supports alternatives to plurality voting and supports proportional representation.
Perhaps it is what motivated Prof. Amy to contact some local leagues rather than “self promotion”?
The specific position language can be found in LWVUS publication "Impact on Issues" page 47 and 48 https://www.lwv.org/sites/default/files/2020-12/LWV-impact-2020.pdf
"we support electoral systems that “implement alternatives to plurality voting”
and
"The League supports electoral systems that elect policy-making bodies–-legislatures, councils, commissions, and boards—that proportionally reflect the people they represent.”
Paula Lee
LWV Sacramento, CA
916-704-0195 Cell & Text
P.S. I found this when I looked up his book Real Choices/New Voices:
There is a growing realization that many of the problems afflicting American elections can be traced to the electoral system itself, in particular to our winner-take-all approach to electing officials. Douglas Amy demonstrates that switching to proportional representation elections―the voting system used in most other Western democracies, by which officials are elected in large, multimember districts according to the proportion of the vote won by their parties―would enliven democratic political debate, increase voter choice and voter turnout, ensure fair representation for third parties and minorities, eliminate wasted votes and "spoilers," and ultimately produce policies that better reflect the public will. Looking beyond new voting machines and other quick fixes for our electoral predicament, this new edition of Real Choices/New Voices offers a timely and imaginative way out of the frustrations of our current system of choosing leaders.
On Apr 6, 2021, at 7:40 AM, Kayla Vix <KVix at lwv.org<mailto:KVix at lwv.org>> wrote:
I would caution against promoting resources that LWV doesn’t endorse or control. There may be some good content here, but this feels mostly like self-promotion—especially if this person is getting in touch with many Leagues in this way.
Kayla Vix (she/her)<https://www.lwv.org/league-management/dei-resources/pronoun-and-gender-guidance>
Communications Manager
League of Women Voters of the United States
1233 20th St NW, Suite 500, Washington, DC 20036
202-809-9668 | kvix at lwv.org<mailto:kvix at lwv.org>
lwv.org<https://www.lwv.org/> | Facebook<http://facebook.com/leagueofwomenvoters> | Twitter<http://twitter.com/lwv>
<image001.jpg>
From: lwv-state-presidents at googlegroups.com<mailto:lwv-state-presidents at googlegroups.com> <lwv-state-presidents at googlegroups.com<mailto:lwv-state-presidents at googlegroups.com>> On Behalf Of Dare Thompson
Sent: Monday, April 5, 2021 5:31 PM
To: LWV Colorado - ED Beth Hendrix <bhendrix at lwvcolorado.org<mailto:bhendrix at lwvcolorado.org>>
Cc: Carol Moon Goldberg <cmoongoldberg at lwvc.org<mailto:cmoongoldberg at lwvc.org>>; League of Women Voters State Presidents <lwv-state-presidents at googlegroups.com<mailto:lwv-state-presidents at googlegroups.com>>
Subject: Re: Mt Holyoke professor Douglas J Amy
My local League got the same message and I was impressed by what I saw of his writings and background but we don't endorse even the finest of finest scholars so we couldn't think what to do about his request except maybe to ask him to speak to us. I'm also on the NY state board and haven't heard how we responded if we did.
Dare Thompson
36 Reservoir Road, Marlboro, NY 12542
845-236-3074 (preferred) 845-591-3445 (cell)
On Mon, Apr 5, 2021 at 3:10 PM Beth Hendrix <bhendrix at lwvcolorado.org<mailto:bhendrix at lwvcolorado.org>> wrote:
One of our state Leagues forwarded a message from Dr. Amy, which prompted a bit of background research – he seems legit and a valid resource, we decided – that said, we haven’t contacted him at this point.
Best --
Beth
Beth Hendrix
(she/her)
Executive Director
<image002.jpg><https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.lwvcolorado.org%2F&data=04%7C01%7Ckvix%40lwv.org%7C0cc7488acddc45a561fe08d8f87a190c%7C90befbfe6dce4edfba8a35fb67131124%7C1%7C0%7C637532550604188254%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=yNg9cWzQleMBVyZRUugc21U0CUcrpRm21eNhdqUfjpE%3D&reserved=0>
Empowering voters. Defending democracy.
Empoderar a los votantes. La defensa de la democracia.
303-863-0437 office
303-588-5470 cell
From: lwv-state-presidents at googlegroups.com<mailto:lwv-state-presidents at googlegroups.com> <lwv-state-presidents at googlegroups.com<mailto:lwv-state-presidents at googlegroups.com>> On Behalf Of Carol Moon Goldberg
Sent: Monday, April 5, 2021 12:50 PM
To: 'League of Women Voters State Presidents' <lwv-state-presidents at googlegroups.com<mailto:lwv-state-presidents at googlegroups.com>>
Subject: Mt Holyoke professor Douglas J Amy
Hello everyone,
A couple of our local Leagues have been contacted by a retired Mt. Holyoke professor named Douglas J. Amy suggesting that his website be posted on their websites. I believe this is the site https://governmentisgood.com/about.php<https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgovernmentisgood.com%2Fabout.php&data=04%7C01%7Ckvix%40lwv.org%7C0cc7488acddc45a561fe08d8f87a190c%7C90befbfe6dce4edfba8a35fb67131124%7C1%7C0%7C637532550604198201%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=GMwNq%2F82BW5CcnZfL6ILriVQpsDfDsoNpZrEwLpglqw%3D&reserved=0>
Government is Good - About this website<https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgovernmentisgood.com%2Fabout.php&data=04%7C01%7Ckvix%40lwv.org%7C0cc7488acddc45a561fe08d8f87a190c%7C90befbfe6dce4edfba8a35fb67131124%7C1%7C0%7C637532550604198201%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=GMwNq%2F82BW5CcnZfL6ILriVQpsDfDsoNpZrEwLpglqw%3D&reserved=0>
About this website. governmentisgood.com<https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fgovernmentisgood.com%2F&data=04%7C01%7Ckvix%40lwv.org%7C0cc7488acddc45a561fe08d8f87a190c%7C90befbfe6dce4edfba8a35fb67131124%7C1%7C0%7C637532550604208160%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=BrM3B4tu7ZNtpmoPSFfuI8qz4kMaOrPuFEme60rKFRI%3D&reserved=0> – a web project of Douglas J. Amy. I am a Professor of Politics at Mount Holyoke College, where I have taught American politics for over 20 years. My main area of expertise has been electoral system reform, and I have written a number of books including Real Choices, New Voices: How Proportional Representation Elections Could Revitalize American ...
governmentisgood.com<https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fgovernmentisgood.com%2F&data=04%7C01%7Ckvix%40lwv.org%7C0cc7488acddc45a561fe08d8f87a190c%7C90befbfe6dce4edfba8a35fb67131124%7C1%7C0%7C637532550604208160%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=BrM3B4tu7ZNtpmoPSFfuI8qz4kMaOrPuFEme60rKFRI%3D&reserved=0>
He's created a library on proportional representation for FairVote.
Have you or any of the Leagues in your states had contact with this? What are your opinions of it, if you have any.
Thanks so much,
Carol Moon Goldberg (she, her)
President
League of Women Voters of California
Phone (916) 715-2604
cmoongoldberg at lwvc.org<mailto:cmoongoldberg at lwvc.org>
www.lwvc.org<https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.lwvc.org%2F&data=04%7C01%7Ckvix%40lwv.org%7C0cc7488acddc45a561fe08d8f87a190c%7C90befbfe6dce4edfba8a35fb67131124%7C1%7C0%7C637532550604208160%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=VxBMPuArDu5xWHdtNkwEDrkwEp%2F0%2BrDyFEO046nzgu4%3D&reserved=0> | www.cavotes.org<https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cavotes.org%2F&data=04%7C01%7Ckvix%40lwv.org%7C0cc7488acddc45a561fe08d8f87a190c%7C90befbfe6dce4edfba8a35fb67131124%7C1%7C0%7C637532550604218116%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=55AFDvRVG29FUMt%2F5INgMWyqdewJPS9VsDiBPwDU888%3D&reserved=0> | www.easyvoterguide.org<https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.easyvoterguide.org%2F&data=04%7C01%7Ckvix%40lwv.org%7C0cc7488acddc45a561fe08d8f87a190c%7C90befbfe6dce4edfba8a35fb67131124%7C1%7C0%7C637532550604218116%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=G33ji%2B8ued5DEOcO9%2FfPBtoSZngABRUTQrPZpbliwcA%3D&reserved=0> | www.votersedge.org/ca<https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.votersedge.org%2Fca&data=04%7C01%7Ckvix%40lwv.org%7C0cc7488acddc45a561fe08d8f87a190c%7C90befbfe6dce4edfba8a35fb67131124%7C1%7C0%7C637532550604228070%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=yTBqEcW%2BgpbKZH8NzmLfBZfOZr6pxnV96tCXxy%2FaSGQ%3D&reserved=0>
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Karen M. Douglas
3rd Vice President/Program
League of Women Voters of Central New Mexico (LWVCNM)
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George M. Richmond
152 Juniper Hill Road, NE
Albuquerque, NM 87122-1913
C: 505-280-2105
E: geomrich1 at comcast.net<mailto:geomrich1 at comcast.net>
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